FNU starts out at a disadvantage by virtue of playing last.
Sometimes this disadvantage is huge.
Generally, the fewer the starting countries, the greater this disadvantage.
I shall call the turns "Turn-0", "Red-1", "Green-1", "Red-2", "Green-2", etc.
I agree with you that it's fairly common for a Micronesia position to be "lost" on Turn-0 vs any reasonable opponent (or conversely, "won" on Turn-0 by any competent player).
I just won a Micronesia game playing Red (not vs Tryptamon). I don't see how my opponent had any real chance.
I don't know whether giving each player a 12-country would help. Red would have a 12-country to disclose on Turn-0, which would be powerful.
I previously suggested a possible "solution" to the issue of Red's Play First Advantage.
Specifically, on Turn-0 only, that Green receive a special recruitment phase that comes as the very last phase of the turn.
With that modification, Red moves first, and Green produces first.
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With the current system, Red moves first and produces first.
Sometimes on turn Red-1, Red is able to destroy units which Green exposed on Turn-0. On Turn-0, Green is in a position of either having his/her hands tied by avoiding exposure, or of taking a risk. Red does not have to contend with this problem.
On turn Red-1, Red often attacks a country. If this is one of Green's starting countries, then Green will never get production for that country (assuming a successful attack).
In the case of a Micronesia game, before Green has had a chance to "move" (all s/he has done is expose one country), his or her total production has been cut to half that of Red.
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For a Micronesia game, let's consider the available force for each side for turns 1 and 2. For each turn, the $ value of the units available for each side to "move" with (issue orders to) is given.
We shall ignore guerillas.
Let's assume that Red is unable to destroy any units on turn Red-1. In fact, that no unit destruction occurs at all.
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Current System
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Turn Red-1: Red "moves" with $8 of units
Turn Green-1: Green "moves" with $8 of units
Turn Red-2: Red "moves" with $18 of units
Turn Green-2: Green "moves" with $18 of units
Red has the initiative and production advantage.
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Modified System
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Turn Red-1: Red "moves" with $8 of units
Turn Green-1: Green "moves" with $10 of units
Turn Red-2: Red "moves" with $18 of units
Turn Green-2: Green "moves" with $20 of units
Things are a bit more balanced.
Of course, the above is an oversimplfication. It ignores guerrillas. It ignores the fact that Red may have already used his advantage to destroy some of Green's units, exacerbating the material discrepency.
The modified system gives Green a better chance of dealing with Red's initial blitz kreig.
An alternative possible modification is to give Green 1.5 x normal guerillas for the first country that Red invades.
In the case of a Micronesia game, Red having to deal with 6 guerilla units rather than 4 for the first invasion could alter the balance significantly.
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